Think by Numbers

Minimizing suffering with the power of arithmetic.

How an oven works

You set a temperature. A thermometer measures the actual temperature, compares it to the setting, and turns the heat up or down until the two match.

An oven: set the temperature, the heating element heats the oven, dinner cooks, and a thermometer feeds back to the setting. Set 180° Heating element Oven Dinner THERMOMETER: MEASURES, COMPARES TO THE SETTING, ADJUSTS

How a government works

It announces a policy and spends the budget. Nothing measures whether the policy did what it was supposed to do, so nothing gets adjusted.

A government: announce a policy, spend the budget, outcomes, and then a question mark. No sensor, no comparison, no adjustment. Announce a policy Spend the budget Outcomes ? NO SENSOR · NO COMPARISON · NO ADJUSTMENT

How a government should work

The goal is the general welfare, measured as the median person's healthy years and income, with priorities set by people rather than lobbyists. A controller funds what moves those numbers and defunds what does not. Trials measure which treatments work and data from thousands of jurisdictions measures which policies work, and the results feed back to the start. The whole loop is optimal governance.

A closed loop: the goal, a controller, the actions, outcomes, and sensors feeding back to the goal. The goal THE GENERAL WELFARE PRIORITIES: WISHOCRACY The controller OPTIMITRON FUNDS WHAT WORKS The actions DECENTRALIZED FDA · DIH INCENTIVE ALIGNMENT BONDS Outcomes HEALTHY YEARS AND INCOME OF THE MEDIAN PERSON The sensors TRIALS SHOW WHICH TREATMENTS WORK POLICY DATA SHOWS WHICH POLICIES WORK: OPTIMOCRACY MEASURE, COMPARE, ADJUST

The 1% Treaty

An Incentive-Compatible Approach to Ending War and Disease

A Decentralized FDA

The Continuous Evidence Generation Protocol: Two-Stage Validation from Real-World Evidence to Pragmatic Trials

Pragmatic Trials at Scale

Ubiquitous Pragmatic Trial Impact Analysis: How to Prevent a Year of Death and Suffering for 84 Cents

Optimocracy

Causal Inference on Cross-Jurisdictional Policy Data to Maximize Median Health and Wealth

The Optimal Policy Generator

A Causal Inference Protocol for Maximizing Median Health and Wealth Through Public Policy

The Optimal Budget Generator

A Causal Inference Protocol for Maximizing Median Health and Wealth Through Public Goods Funding

Wishocracy

Solving the Democratic Principal-Agent Problem Through Pairwise Preference Aggregation

Incentive Alignment Bonds

Making Public Goods Financially and Politically Profitable

Algorithmic Public Administration

A Protocol for Replacing Government Intermediaries with Transparent Functions

The Earth Optimization Prize

A Prize Pool That Pays Out When Health and Income Targets Are Reached by 2040

Choose Your Own Earth

GDP Trajectories: Optimization Versus Collapse

The Political Dysfunction Tax

The Per-Person, Per-Year Cost of Governance Dysfunction

The Organized Violence Tax

What War Has Cost Since 1900: 310 Million Lives and $1.48 Quadrillion

United States Efficiency Audit

$4.98 Trillion a Year in Governance Inefficiency

The People of Earth v. Their Governments

Negligent Mass Homicide Charges Against Governments, and the Remedy