The Annual Cost of War

Direct Costs:

1. Military Expenditure: $1,981 billion. This reflects the total global spending on armed forces, including salaries, operations, maintenance, and procurement of weapons and equipment.
2. Economic Impact of Conflict: $521 billion. Costs incurred due to the immediate effects of war, such as destruction of property, loss of life, and the displacement of people.
3. Infrastructure Destruction: $1,875 billion. Represents the cost to repair or replace infrastructure damaged or destroyed during conflicts, including roads, bridges, and utilities.
4. Trade and Investment Disruption: $616 billion. Estimated losses from interruptions in trade flows and deterred investments in conflict zones or areas under threat.

Indirect Costs:

1. Human Costs: $1,000 billion (using statistical value of life). Calculated by applying a monetary value to the loss of life, this figure represents the cost of human casualties of war.
2. Opportunity Costs: Lost economic benefits from military spending. Resources spent on military endeavors could have been used for other societal needs, such as education or healthcare.
3. Multiplier Effect: Additional economic activity from productive investment. Reflects the lost economic growth that could have been generated if resources were invested in productive sectors rather than military spending.
4. Long-term Healthcare for Veterans: $200 billion. Costs associated with providing ongoing medical care, rehabilitation, and support services to veterans injured during military service.
5. Psychological Impacts on Populations: $100 billion. Expenses related to treating mental health issues like PTSD, depression, and anxiety stemming from the trauma of war.
6. Loss of Human Capital: $300 billion. Economic impact of losing skilled and productive individuals to conflict, affecting the workforce and future earning potentials.
7. Environmental Degradation: $100 billion. Costs to address environmental damage caused by warfare, including land degradation, pollution, and loss of biodiversity.
8. Refugee Support: $150 billion. Expenses for providing assistance to refugees, including shelter, food, healthcare, and integration services.

Calculations and Equations:

• Human Cost of War: Annual Deaths × Statistical Value of Life
• Total Direct Costs: Military Expenditure + Economic Impact of Conflict + Infrastructure Destruction + Trade and Investment Disruption
• Total Indirect Costs: Human Costs + Long-term Healthcare for Veterans + Psychological Impacts on Populations + Loss of Human Capital + Environmental Degradation + Refugee Support
• Updated Total Annual Cost of War: Total Direct Costs + Total Indirect Costs

Total Annual Cost of War:

• Direct Costs Total: $4,993 billion.
• Indirect Costs Total: $2,245.25 billion.
• Updated Total Annual Cost: $7,238.25 billion.

Total Cost to the Average Person Over Their Lifetime

Assuming a global population of 7.8 billion and an average lifespan of 80 years:

1. Annual Per Capita Cost: $7,238.25 billion / 7.8 billion = $928.24
2. Lifetime Cost Per Person: $928.24 × 80 years = $74,259.2

Insights

The comprehensive annual cost of war, factoring in both direct and updated indirect costs, is approximately $7,238.25 billion. This equates to a staggering cost of about $74,259.2 per person over an 80-year lifespan, underscoring the profound economic and human impacts of global conflicts.

Cumulative Savings from Decreased Annual Cost of War

Given the initial annual cost of war is approximately $7,238.25 billion, we explore the scenario where this cost decreases by 1% every year for 80 years. This decrease reflects potential efficiencies, peacekeeping successes, and the reallocation of resources towards more productive and peaceful endeavors. Here’s how the calculations unfold:

Initial Assumptions:

• Initial Annual Cost of War: $7,238.25 billion.
• Annual Decrease Rate: 1% per year.
• Duration: 80 years.
• Global Population: 7.8 billion.

Calculations:

1. Total Cost with Decrease: We calculate the total cost over 80 years, taking into account the 1% annual decrease. This involves summing up the cost for each year, where each subsequent year’s cost is 1% less than the previous year’s.

2. Total Cost without Decrease: For comparison, we calculate what the total cost would have been if it remained constant at $7,238.25 billion per year over 80 years.

3. Cumulative Savings: The difference between the total cost without the decrease and the total cost with the decrease gives us the cumulative savings over 80 years.

4. Per Capita Savings: To determine the impact on an individual level, we divide the cumulative savings by the global population of 7.8 billion.

Results:

• Cumulative Savings: Approximately $179 trillion over 80 years.
• Per Capita Savings: Approximately $22,969.68 per person over 80 years.

By reducing the annual cost of war by a modest 1% annually over the course of 80 years, the global community could save nearly $179.16 trillion, translating to almost $23,000 in savings per person.

Transformative Impact of Redirecting War Savings to Healthcare Innovation

The global cost of conflict is staggering, not just in human lives but also in economic terms. By imagining the redirection of $179,163.49 billion, initially earmarked for warfare over 80 years, towards healthcare innovation, we explore the potential to save lives, reduce disability, and significantly impact the global economy.

Assumptions

• Efficiency and Cost Reduction in R&D: 50% increase
• Lives Saved: 50 million, through breakthrough treatments for major diseases.
• Reduced Disability Years: 500 million, significantly improving global health.
• Productivity Increase: 5% increase in global productivity from vastly improved health outcomes.

Economic Benefits

• Direct Investment Impact: $268,745 billion in effective healthcare innovation value.
• Lives Saved Economic Benefit: $500,000 billion.
• Reduced Disability Years Economic Benefit: $25,000 billion.
• Productivity Increase Economic Benefit: $320,000 billion.

Total Economic Benefit

The total economic benefit is approximately $1,113,745 billion. This figure reflects the unparalleled impact of fully harnessing AI and healthcare innovation to cure disease.

Per Capita Economic Benefit of Automated Clinical Research

The transformative potential of redirecting funds from warfare to healthcare innovation can be further understood by examining the per capita economic benefits. This scenario optimistically assumes a 50% increase in R&D efficiency through AI, saving 50 million lives, reducing 500 million disability years, and boosting global productivity by 5%.

Calculation

Given the total economic benefit of approximately $1,113,745 billion from redirecting war savings towards healthcare innovation, and considering the global population of 7.8 billion, we can calculate the per capita benefit as follows:

Per Capita Total Economic Benefit = Total Economic Benefit / Global Population = $142,787.82 per person

This figure represents the economic value that could be realized on an individual level if the substantial funds currently allocated to warfare were instead invested in maximizing the potential of healthcare innovation.

The redirection of funds from warfare to healthcare innovation presents an opportunity to significantly improve global health outcomes and economic prosperity. From saving millions of lives to enhancing productivity and reducing disabilities, the potential benefits are immense.

By automating clinical research we can unlock unprecedented levels of health, well-being, and economic growth, creating a lasting legacy of peace and prosperity.

$142k for 5 Hours of Your Time

Historical examples show that petitions with support from over 1% of the population have a high likelihood of being adopted. So all you have to do is

Factors Influencing Time Investment

1. Number of Friends: The average number of significant relationships one might actively maintain, often cited as Dunbar’s number, is around 150.

2. Method of Communication: Personal messages or emails are considered for this estimation, assuming they strike a balance between personal touch and efficiency.

3. Time Per Friend: It’s estimated that drafting and sending a personal message or email would take approximately 2 minutes per friend. This includes the time to write the message and possibly tailor it slightly for each friend.

Calculation

Given the average number of friends (150) and the estimated time per friend (2 minutes), the total time investment can be calculated as follows:

• Total Friends: 150
• Time per Friend: 2 minutes

Total Time = Number of Friends × Time per Friend = 150 friends × 2 minutes/friend = 300 minutes = 5 hours

Based on this estimation, an average person would need to invest approximately 5 hours to individually reach out to all 150 of their friends via personal messages or emails about the treaty. This calculation assumes a brief but personalized communication method, emphasizing the importance of each conversation in promoting global initiatives.