For 10,000 years, life expectancy was 28. GDP per capita was $100. Then around 1800, both numbers suddenly decided to go vertical. It's like humanity spent 10,000 years in the tutorial level and then someone finally pressed start.
The chart below shows what happens when humans discover that you can test ideas instead of just believing the loudest guy in the room. Before 1800, the loudest guy in the room was usually a king or a priest, and their ideas mostly involved who to stab and which invisible being to pray to.
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Some text in the Modal..
function millisToYear(m) { return m / 1000 / 365 / 86400 + 1970; } function yearToMillis(y) { return (y - 1970) * 365 * 24 * 3600 * 1000; } // Get the modal var modal = document.getElementById("myModal"); // Get the <span> element that closes the modal var span = document.getElementsByClassName("close")[0]; var modalTextElement = document.getElementById("modalText"); // When the user clicks the button, open the modal var showModal = function(modalHtml) { modalTextElement.innerHTML = modalHtml; modal.style.display = "block"; }; // When the user clicks on <span> (x), close the modal span.onclick = function() { modal.style.display = "none"; }; // When the user clicks anywhere outside of the modal, close it window.onclick = function(event) { if (event.target === modal) { modal.style.display = "none"; } }; var series = [ { name: 'Life Expectancy', color: '#DB4437', yAxis: 0, showInLegend: true, data: [ //[-10000, 28.5], [-1000, 28.5], [-500, 28.5], [1, 28.5], [100, 28.5], [200, 28.5], [300, 29], [400, 29], [500, 29], [600, 29], [700, 28.5], [800, 29], [900, 28.5], [1000, 28.5], [1050, null], [1100, 28.5], [1150, null], [1200, 28.5], [1250, null], [1300, null], [1350, null], [1400, 28.5], [1450, null], [1500, 28.5], [1550, 28.5], [1600, 29], [1650, 29], [1700, 29], [1710, 29], [1720, 28.5], [1730, 29], [1740, 29], [1750, 29], [1760, 29], [1770, 28.7], [1780, 28.7], [1790, 28.7], [1800, 28.5], [1810, 28.7], [1820, 29], [1830, 29], [1840, 29], [1850, 29.3], [1860, 29.3], [1870, 29.7], [1880, 30], [1890, 31], [1900, 32], [1910, 34.1], [1920, null], [1930, null], [1940, null], [1950, 45.7], [1960, 50.1], [1970, 60], [1980, 61.2], [1990, 65.2], [2000, 66.6] ] }, { name: 'GDP per capita', color: '#0F9D58', yAxis: 1, showInLegend: true, data: [ [-1000, 127], [-500, 137], [1, 109], [100, null], [200, 98], [300, null], [400, 97], [500, 102], [600, 104], [700, 112], [800, 116], [900, 131], [1000, 133], [1050, null], [1100, 124], [1150, null], [1200, 104], [1250, 99], [1300, 89], [1350, null], [1400, 128], [1450, null], [1500, 138], [1550, null], [1600, 141], [1650, 150], [1700, 164], [1710, null], [1720, null], [1730, null], [1740, null], [1750, 178], [1760, null], [1770, null], [1780, null], [1790, null], [1800, 195], [1810, null], [1820, null], [1830, null], [1840, null], [1850, 300], [1860, null], [1870, null], [1880, null], [1890, null], [1900, 679], [1910, null], [1920, 956], [1930, 1134], [1940, 1356], [1950, 1622], [1960, 2270], [1970, 3282], [1980, 4231], [1990, 5204], [2000, 6539] ] }, { name: '% of People Living in a Democracy', color: '#4285F4', yAxis: 2, showInLegend: true, data: [ [-1000, 1], [-500, null], [1, 1], [100, 1], [200, 1], [300, 1], [400, 1], [500, 1], [600, 1], [700, 1], [800, 1], [900, 1], [1000, 1], [1050, null], [1100, 1], [1150, null], [1200, 1], [1250, null], [1300, 1], [1350, null], [1400, 1], [1450, null], [1500, 1], [1550, null], [1600, 1], [1650, null], [1700, 1], [1710, null], [1720, null], [1730, null], [1740, null], [1750, null], [1760, null], [1770, null], [1780, null], [1790, 1], [1800, 1], [1810, 1], [1820, 1], [1830, 1], [1840, 2], [1850, 5], [1860, 3], [1870, 4], [1880, 9], [1890, 10], [1900, 12], [1910, 13], [1920, 20], [1930, 17], [1940, 9], [1950, 31], [1960, 39], [1970, 33], [1980, 35], [1990, 43], [2000, 56] ] }, { name: 'Books Published', color: '#F4B400', yAxis: 3, showInLegend: true, data: [ [1500, 13.4480835465996], [1550, 51.0188652345717], [1600, 65.3160453808749], [1850, 124.020455465215], [1900, 143.79783744381], [1950, 259.70036108285], [1960, 360.421599327885], [1970, 797.6164797239], [1980, 700.411975707639], [1990, 942.387954827507], [2000, 1745.07212973763], [2001, 1601.90564333554], [2002, 1680.3023733088], [2003, 1710.20221301571], [2004, 1373.03845841665], [2005, 1710.03488549259], [2006, 1602.79421822641], [2007, 1835.7009856385], [2008, 2325.99115068294], [2009, 2114.85281364031], ] /* data: [ [1470, 0], [1471, 0], [1472, 0], [1473, 0], [1474, 0], [1475, 0], [1476, 0], [1477, 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4018], [1775, 4014], [1776, 4010], [1777, 4003], [1778, 3444], [1779, 3489], [1780, 3465.5], [1781, 3442], [1782, 3615], [1783, 4013], [1784, 4281], [1785, 4421], [1786, 4561], [1787, 4781], [1788, 5200], [1789, 5018], [1790, 5375.5], [1791, 5733], [1792, 6788], [1793, 6845], [1794, 7122], [1795, 7409], [1796, 7696], [1797, 7006], [1798, 7842], [1799, 7211] ],*/ } ]; series = series.map(function (oneSeries) { oneSeries.data = oneSeries.data.map(function (onePoint) { onePoint[0] = yearToMillis(onePoint[0]); return onePoint; }); return oneSeries; }); function getConfig(scale){ function getAnnotation(title, year, modalHtml, height){ //if(scale !== 'logarithmic'){ height = height + 4; } var modalTitle = title; var calloutTitle = "<p style='text-align: center;'>"+title.replace(/ /g, "<br />")+"</p>"; return { labelOptions: { //shape: 'connector', shape: 'callout', align: 'top', justify: true, crop: false, overflow:"justify", //className: 'climb', distance: 0, allowOverlap: true }, labels: [{ point: { xAxis: 0, yAxis: 0, x: yearToMillis(year), y: height }, text: calloutTitle }], events:{ click: function(e){ //window.open(url, "_blank"); showModal("<h1 style='text-align: center;'>"+modalTitle+"</h1>" + modalHtml) } } } } return { chart: { zoomType: 'xy', height: 600 }, title: { text: 'Long-Term Trends in Human Well-Being' }, subtitle: { text: '(' + scale + ' scale)' }, tooltip: { xDateFormat: '%Y', formatter: function () { return this.points.reduce(function (s, point) { //debugger //console.log(point) if (point.series.name.indexOf('GDP') > -1) { return s + '<br />$' + point.y + ' ' + point.series.name; } if (point.series.name.indexOf('Life') > -1) { return s + '<br />' + point.y + ' Year ' + point.series.name; } if (point.series.name.indexOf('Democracy') > -1) { return s + '<br />' + point.y + point.series.name; } return s + '<br />' + point.y + " "+ point.series.name; }, '<b>' + millisToYear(this.x) + '</b>'); }, shared: true }, plotOptions: { series: { connectNulls: true } }, annotations: [ getAnnotation("Little Ice Age", 1300, "<p>" + "As Europe moved out of the Medieval Warm Period and into the Little Ice Age, a decrease in " + "temperature and a great number of devastating floods disrupted harvests and caused mass famine. "+ "</p>", 28), getAnnotation("Great Famine", 1317, "<p>" + "The cold and the rain proved to be particularly disastrous from 1315 to 1317 in which poor weather" + " interrupted the maturation of many grains and beans and flooding turned fields rocky and barren. "+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Hundred Years' War & Black Death", 1337, "<p>" + "The Hundred Years' War was a series of conflicts from 1337 to 1453, waged between the House of " + "Plantagenet, rulers of England and the French House of Valois, over the right to rule the Kingdom of France. "+ "</p>"+ "<h1>Black Death</h1>" + "<p>" + "The Black Death, also known as the Pestilence, the Great Bubonic Plague, the Great Plague or the " + "Plague, or less commonly the Great Mortality or the Black Plague, was the most devastating pandemic" + " recorded in human history, resulting in the deaths of up to 75-125 million people globally " + "(in Eurasia and North Africa), peaking in Europe from 1347 to 1351."+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Printing Press", 1470, "<p>" + "Through transmission of ideas, this printing press enabled the brain of one genius to " + "improve millions of crappier brains."+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Trigonometry", 1591, "<h2>1591: Francois Viete Invents Analytical Trigonometry</h2>" + "<p>" + "Viete's invention is essential to the study of physics and astronomy."+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Scientific Method", 1637, "<h2>1637: Rene Descartes Publishes His Discourse On Method</h2>" + "<p>" + "Descartes' work sets forth the principles of deductive reasoning as used in the modern scientific method."+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Gravity", 1687, "<h2>1687: Isaac Newton Publishes Philosophia Naturalis Principia Mathematica</h2>" + "<p>" + "Perhaps the most important event in the history of science, the Principia lays out Newton's " + "comprehensive model of the universe as organized according to the law of universal gravitation. " + "The Principia represents the integration of the works of all of the great astronomers who preceded " + "Newton, and remains the basis of modern physics and astronomy."+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Steam Engine", 1712, "<p>" + "The first practical steam engine is invented by Thomas Newcomen. Steam would become an important source of power for the Industrial Revolution."+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Industrial Revolution", 1750, "<p>" + "The First Industrial Revolution begins around 1760 in the textile industry in Great Britain. " + "Over the next decade, manufacturing will move from hand production in the home to machine production in factories."+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Cotton Gin", 1770, "<p>" + "Benjamin Waterhouse introduces the smallpox vaccine to the United States and helps gain acceptance for the new procedure."+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Smallpox Vaccine", 1799, "<p>" + "Eli Whitney invents the cotton gin greatly increasing the productivity of processing cotton."+ "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Cells", 1838, "<p>" + "In 1838 Matthias Jakob Shleiden discovers that all plants are made of cells and, within the same year, " + "Theodor Schwann discovered that all animals are made of cells as well." + "</p>" + "<p>" + "Karl Theodor Ernst von Siebold suggests" + " the name 'Cell Theory' for the proposition that all animals are made of cells." + "</p>" + "<p>" + "In 1845, Karl Theodor Ernst von " + "Siebold discovered that microbes are also made of cells too, though not many cells, just one cell." + "</p>", 29), getAnnotation("Anesthesia", 1846, "<p>" + "John Collins Warren, the School's first dean, provides the first public demonstration of anesthesia in surgery."+ "</p>", 30), getAnnotation("Germs", 1860, "<p>" + "In the 1860´s Louis Pasteur realizes the Germ Theory of Disease or pasteurization; the idea that infectious" + " diseases are caused by germs, and then spread about by people." + "</p>", 30), getAnnotation("Telephone", 1876, "<p>" + " Alexander Graham Bell invents the telephone." + "</p>", 30), getAnnotation("Light Bulb", 1879, "<p>" + "Thomas Edison invents the first practical incandescent light bulb. It will allow factories to remain open after dark." + "</p>", 36), getAnnotation("Power Plants", 1891, "<p>" + "The first modern electrical power station is completed to provide power to central London." + "</p>", 34), getAnnotation("Cars", 1908, "<p>" + "Henry Ford begins production on the Model T Ford. He uses the assembly line to build the first affordable automobile." + "</p>", 35), getAnnotation("Heart Surgery", 1923, "<p>" + "Eliot Cutler performs the world's first successful heart valve surgery at the Peter Bent Brigham " + "Hospital, today part of Brigham and Women's Hospital." + "</p>", 40), getAnnotation("Polio Treatment", 1929, "<p>" + "In a first, the newly developed Drinker Respirator (iron lung) saves a polio patient at Peter " + "Bent Brigham in collaboration with Children's Hospital Medical Center, today Boston Children's " + "Hospital, and the Harvard School of Public Health." + "</p>", 45), getAnnotation("Kidney Transplant", 1952, "<p>" + "Surgeon Joseph Murray performs the first successful kidney transplant on identical twins at Peter " + "Bent Brigham." + "</p>", 45), // getAnnotation("Started Washing Our Damn Hands", 1905 , // "<p>" + // "In 1905 Florence Nightingale discovered that being clean was essential in patient care and reducing " + // "infectious diseases and earns an award for it. Joseph Lister developed a use of chemicals to help in " + // "reducing the spreading of microbes and also wins an award for it, and William Stewart Halsted was one" + // " of the very first to use gloves while performing surgery as a way to prevent the spread of microbes" + // "</p>", 34), getAnnotation("test", 750, "https://google.com"), getAnnotation("test", 750, "https://google.com"), ], exporting: { csv: { dateFormat: '%Y' } }, xAxis: { //min: Date.UTC(-10000, 1, 1), //max: Date.UTC(2014, 1, 1) ordinal: false, }, yAxis: [ { // 1st yAxis: Life expectancy at birth gridLineWidth: 0, type: scale, title: { text: series[0].name, style: { color: series[0].color } }, labels: { format: '{value}', style: { color: series[0].color } }, }, { // 2nd yAxis: GDP/cap gridLineWidth: 0, type: scale, title: { text: series[1].name, style: { color: series[1].color } }, labels: { format: '${value}', style: { color: series[1].color } }, }, { // 6th yAxis: % living in a democracy gridLineWidth: 0, type: scale, title: { text: series[2].name, style: { color: series[2].color } }, labels: { format: '{value}%', style: { color: series[2].color } }, }, { // 6th yAxis: % living in a democracy gridLineWidth: 0, type: scale, title: { text: series[3].name, style: { color: series[3].color } }, labels: { format: '{value}', style: { color: series[3].color } }, } ], legend: { enabled: true, align: 'left', verticalAlign: 'top', x: 0, y: 100, floating: true, layout: 'vertical', backgroundColor: (Highcharts.theme && Highcharts.theme.legendBackgroundColor) || '#FFFFFF' }, series: series }; } Highcharts.stockChart('container', getConfig('linear')); Highcharts.stockChart('logarithmic-container', getConfig('logarithmic')); </span></span>
Chart prepared by Luke Muehlhauser
When Did This Start?
On a logarithmic scale, the uptick starts around 1500 AD—the Scientific Method and the Enlightenment. Then it explodes with the Industrial Revolution. Turns out testing hypotheses works better than burning witches. Who knew?
Sometimes I wonder if witch-burning was just an early form of peer review that got a bit out of hand.
Important Historical Events
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