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Democracy

Voter Support for a Bill Has Near Zero Influence on Whether It Will Become Law

After examining nearly 2,000 public opinion surveys and comparing them to actual policy outcomes, they discovered that the opinions of 90% of Americans have virtually no impact on legislation.

Professors Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page analyzed over two decades of data to answer a fundamental question: Does the government represent the people?

After examining nearly 2,000 public opinion surveys and comparing them to actual policy outcomes, they discovered that the opinions of 90% of Americans have virtually no impact on legislation.

In a representative democracy, the more people like a bill, the more likely it would be to become law.

However, in reality, public support has almost no influence on what laws are passed. Whether there is 0% or 100% support for a policy, there’s a 30% likelihood that it will become law.

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Sources

  1. Gilens and Page, “Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens,” Perspective on Politics, 2014.
  2. Washington Post, “Rich People Rule!” 2014.
  3. Washington Post, “Once again, U.S. has most expensive, least effective health care system in survey,” 2014.
  4. Forbes Opinion, “The tax code is a hopeless complex, economy-suffocating mess,” 2013.
  5. CNN, “Americans pay more for slower Internet,” 2014.
  6. The Hill, “Sanders requests DOD meeting over wasteful spending,” 2015.
  7. CBS News, “Wastebook 2014: Government’s questionable spending,” 2014.
  8. The Heritage Foundation, Budget Book, 2015.
  9. The Atlantic, “American schools vs. the world: expensive, unequal, bad at math,” 2013.
  10. CNN Opinion, “War on drugs a trillion-dollar failure,” 2012.
  11. Feeding America, Child Hunger Fact Sheet, 2014.
  12. New York Times, “Banks’ lobbyists help in drafting financial bills,” 2014.
  13. New York Times, “Wall Street seeks to tuck Dodd-Frank changes in budget bill,” 2014
  14. Sunlight Foundation, “Fixed Fortunes: Biggest corporate political interests spend billions, get trillions,” 2014.