Most voters believe their candidate will win. Both sides think this. Simultaneously. Despite the mathematical impossibility.
This is wishful thinking bias. Your brain is lying to you about election outcomes because it wants to feel good.
The 2008 Data
| Presidential Candidate | Democrat Respondents | Republican Respondents |
|---|---|---|
| John McCain (R) | 12% | 62% |
| Barack Obama (D) | 87% | 38% |
The 2016 Data
| Presidential Candidate | Democrat Respondents | Republican Respondents |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (R) | 9% | 66% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 91% | 33% |
What This Means
In both elections, polls showed tight races. If voters were rational predictors, both groups would estimate roughly 50/50 odds.
Instead:
- 87% of Democrats thought Obama would win
- 62% of Republicans thought McCain would win
- 91% of Democrats thought Clinton would win
- 66% of Republicans thought Trump would win
Everyone thinks their team will win, regardless of what polls say. This isn't analysis. It's hope wearing a statistics costume.
Your brain does this to you automatically. When you predict your candidate will win, you're not forecasting an election. You're expressing a preference and calling it a prediction.
The data shows this clearly. You are not immune to wishful thinking bias. Neither is anyone else. We're all walking around convinced our tribe will prevail because our brains are designed to lie to us in ways that feel good.
You can know this and still believe your candidate will win. That's how good your brain is at lying to itself. It's impressive, really. Just not accurate.
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