Why Think by Numbers?

Numbers cannot lie.

A world without disease, starvation, violence, and suffering is the ultimate destination of humanity. Getting there will require voters to base their decisions on statistical cost-benefit analyses instead of irrational emotions. The power of numbers can make utopia a reality.

The Others

Your mind has been infiltrated. Your logical, conscious prefrontal cortex is ever thwarted by a powerful saboteurs hiding within the dark realm of your subconscious. The usurpers of your decision-making process are none other than the ignorant reptilian brain stem and emotional limbic system. They torture you with sadness for the slightest defiance. They drug you with narcotic neurochemicals like dopamine to reward your obedience. This diabolical duo is responsible for all forms of irrational human behavior, such as racism, war, and marriage. Your only defense against these illogical bastards is to base our decisions on cold, hard numbers. For, unlike the flawed and mischievous parts of our brain, numbers cannot lie.

Three Brains are a Crowd

You have a total of three brains: the reptilian brain, the paleo-mammalian brain, and the rational brain. In a sense, a human being is what you might get nine months after a romantic evening between a lizard, a dog, and a Star Trek’s Mr. Spock.

Triune Brain - Brainstem, Limbic System, Neocortex

Diagram Source: http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/101269/chapters/A-Walk-Through-the-Brain.aspx

  • Brain 1: The Lizard - The reptilian part of us, the brain stem, deals with the basic survival, instinctive, and reproductive functions.  These functions are otherwise known as the four F’s:
    • feeding
    • fornication
    • fight
    • flight

That’s all that crocodiles do with their tiny, pea-sized brains.  The reptilian brain is “rigid, obsessive, compulsive, ritualistic and paranoid” and is prone to repetitive, programmed behaviors with little evidence of learning from mistakes.  We can think of the reptile brain as being responsible for all core tasks, especially that of self-preservation.

  • Brain 2: The Dog – The second evolutionary stratum consists of the ancient paleo-mammalian limbic system. The limbic system, by adding feelings to instincts, can generate more nuanced, varied and flexible behaviors. The limbic system classifies everything as “good or bad”.
  • Brain 3: Mr. Spock – The characteristically human layer is the neocortex. This is the realm of reason and logic. It is this part of our brains that has given us philosophy, mathematics, science, and the Snuggie™.

These three are currently deciding the fate of our planet.  You’ve got the vicious, impulsive lizard, the slobbering dog digging a hole in your couch for no reason, and Mr. Spock. Wouldn’t it be best to leave this job solely to Spock?

A Lizard, a Dog, and Mr. Spock Deciding the World's Fate

Triune Brain Painting – Michael Stancato

Why Our Brains Don’t Work Rite

So, we’ve got this top of the line neocortex which is perfectly capable of rational thought.  Why then, do we behave so irrationally as a species?  The problem is that the rational neocortex is enslaved by the lower brains.  It is not free to examine all available information in the attainment of objective truth.  Instead, it frequently becomes a kind of a slimy neuro-lawyer serving the emotional limbic system. Break it down:

  1. You are exposed to a piece of information.
  2. The information is transmitted to the limbic system.
  3. The limbic system decides if this information is agreeable (true) or disagreeable (false).
  4. The limbic system attaches positive emotions to agreeable information or negative emotions to disagreeable information.
  5. That feeling gives that thought a sense of conviction or truth
  6. This information/emotion combination is what we call a belief.
  7. At that point, the neocortex is employed to protect and defend this belief.
  8. The neocortex puts forth all available evidence which supports this belief.
  9. The neocortex figures out ways to discount any contradictory information.

The limbic system, this primitive brain that can neither read nor write, provides us with the feeling of what is real, true, and important using its own often irrational and illogical criteria. It therefore poses significant danger to us.

Why No One is Reading this Sentence

Many of the hostile commenters on my site have expressed their own theories as to why this is.  However, I feel that the reason for this can be explained by something called “The Caveman Principle”.  This principle states that our brains have generally evolved very little since the time of the caveman. The human brain has been around for about 200,000 years.  The Stone Age only ended about 6,000 years ago.  So, ninety-nine percent of our ancestors lived in environments characterized by starvation and a general scarcity of resources. Evolution crawls at a snail’s pace, so we still have these caveman brains optimized for an environment millennia away from our own. The evidence is lacking that our brains have changed much since then. So our wants, dreams, personalities, and desires have probably not changed much in 200,000 years. It is likely that we still think as our caveman ancestors did.

So, like, what were cavemen into?  Surviving long enough to successfully replicate one’s genes in an unstable environment requires brains with very specific interests.  Hence, the type of brain that survived typically paid a great deal of attention to these questions:

  • Can I eat it?
  • Will it eat me?
  • Can I mate with it?
  • Will it mate with me?

Note these items, which are suspiciously absent from this list:

  • Statistics
  • Economics
  • Formal Cost-Benefit-Analysis Calculations

An interest in these topics was pretty much worthless to primitive humans struggling to survive in ancient Africa.  This is especially true since math and written language didn’t even exist.  Evolutionary theory states that traits that offer no survival or reproductive advantage will not persist. Hence, these subjects are as boring to us as is Al Gore describing his experience watching paint dry.

Evolution has made these subjects brutally boring. So that, my non-existent reader, is why you are not reading this sentence, and are instead viewing one of the many fine pornographic websites that the prestigious internet has to offer.

Let’s Get Ignorant!

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data, fool.”  - Mr. T

A general disinterest in economics and statistics wouldn’t be a big deal if we lived in a dictatorship.  But in our political system, government action is a product of public opinion.  Thomas Jefferson once said, “An informed citizenry is the bulwark of a democracy.”  Based on this quote, I think it’s safe to say that our democracy is currently bulwark-free.  The fact that I don’t know what a bulwark is further proves that we do not have an informed citizenry.

The only way to understand the important details of complex and large-scale societal issues is through the use of statistics and economics. Additionally, formal cost-benefit analysis is the only way to make optimal decisions on complicated issues.  However, most Americans don’t even know what a cost-benefit analysis is, let alone have a grasp of the statistical data needed to perform such an analysis.

Here’s a list of what the average voter doesn’t know:

Without factual data for our neocortices to use in doing a cost-benefit comparison of the candidates, our stupid brain stems and emotional limbic systems get to choose our candidate.

The US government is the most powerful man-made entity in the history of the world. Allowing an uninformed public control of this colossus is like giving a baby a nuclear bomb.  The goal of this website is to upgrade our democracy to the equivalent of a toddler with a nuclear bomb.

Keep In the Vote!

“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.” — Pee Wee Herman

Elections are won and lost not primarily on “the issues” but on the values and emotions of the electorate, including the “gut feelings” that summarize much of what voters think and feel about a candidate or party.

The goal in selecting any candidate is to choose the one that will maximize the overall well-being of the citizenry. If the neocortex were in charge, politicians would be selected solely based on:

  • INTELLIGENCE - The intelligence necessary to effectively identify and execute policies that maximize the general welfare of the populace.  The best way to measure intelligence would be for the candidates to take psychometric tests and make their scores public.
  • KNOWLEDGE - An immense level of knowledge over a wide range of issues (economics, history, science, etc.) is necessary to identify and properly execute optimal public policies.  This could be evaluated through standardized testing of the candidates.
  • RECORD - The candidate’s record proves whether or not they actually support policies that better the general welfare of the citizenry.  It also indicates whether or not the candidate possesses the integrity necessary to resist the influence of special interests.   These are small but powerful groups who would impose their own selfish policies at the expense of the greater society.

Unfortunately, we have an informational vacuum between our ears with reguard to this stuff. Hence, our neocortices are unable to perform a rational calculation. This leaves the decision up to our stupid brain stems and emotional limbic systems. Portions of our brains that know nothing about government or current events. They can’t follow arguments of any complexity. They stuff themselves with slogans and advertisements. They eschew fact for myth. They operate from biases and stereotypes, and they privilege feeling over thinking. The result is a political system of daunting irrationality,  Some of the factors influencing their electoral decisions include:

  • LOOKS - 70% of elections are won by the candidate with the prettiest face. Another study illustrates voter preference for candidates with similar facial features to themselves.
  • LOVELIFE - Although infidelity may say something about a politician’s character, it has no direct impact of the lives of the voters.  My theory is that throughout evolutionary history, man tended to live in small groups.  Hence, the chosen leader was likely to come into direct contact with the voter’s spouse.  Individuals with power elicit a greater ability to seduce spouses.  Therefore, prehistoric voters who chose faithful leaders were less likely to have their spouse impregnated by this leader.  This would leave their spouse’s womb available for their own progeny.  Ultimately, their characteristic appreciation of fidelity would be passed to their offspring.  This is how common personality traits are evolved.
  • ELECTABILITY - Many people choose not to vote for a third party or independent candidate that they prefer because they’re unlikely to win. Their reasoning is that they would be throwing away their chance to help elect the lesser of two evils. A survey of college students shows that 79 percent of the students “felt that their vote makes a difference.” In reality, there is only a one in 60 million chance of a randomly selected voter affecting the presidential election.  It much more likely that that voter will die in a car accident (1 in 1 million) driving to the polls.  Hence, it’s irrational to believe that your vote is any more than a one data point in an opinion poll.
  • TRIBAL LOYALTY - Blind loyalty to political parties often distorts decision-making.  Many would claim that their loyalty to a party’s candidate is a result of their agreement with that candidate’s policies. However, for a lot of partisans, the causality is reversed.   Often individuals will modify their support for policies to achieve agreement with their candidate of the party to which they are loyal. For instance, upon the election of Barack Obama, a lot of republicans suddenly started complaining about the nation’s budget deficit. The odd thing is that, when George W. Bush was president, these same republicans were generally silent on the issue, despite the fact that Mr. Bush ran up $4 trillion in debt. At the same time, many democrats suddenly stopped complaining about the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan upon Obama’s election.  Similarly, when Bush was in charge, these same democrats friends couldn’t stop complaining about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Coincidence?
  • VOTER’S MOOD - An experiment indicates that being in a bad mood while voting makes you more likely to vote out incumbents.
  • FLAGS - The appearance of the American flag makes voters more likely to vote Republican.

We’re damn lucky that CEO’s aren’t elected by popular vote.  If the public got to decide who ran Microsoft, I would be typing this sentence on a typewriter.

How to Beat Out Your Brains

Utopia, a world without disease, starvation, violence, and suffering, is the ultimate goal and destination of society. The thinking, rational mind has the power to make utopia a reality through innovation.  We’ve had a few hundred thousand years to get there, yet it remains a distant dream. Irrational or uniformed decisions are the primary reason why humanity fails to reach its true potential.

In a democracy and a free enterprise economy, voters and consumers are the deciders. Our prehistoric brains decide to waste society’s resources on wars and short-term gratification through erroneous decision-making. They are a drain on the economy, public welfare, the environment, and national security. Resources are misallocated, good ideas are rejected, and bad ideas are accepted. Money is wasted. Life and health are put in jeopardy. Irrational beliefs are sand in the gears of the entire economy.  It’s virtually certain that your life will be shorter and less happy as a result of emotion-based decisions.

The only way to break the shackles put on our neocortices by its evil stepsisters is through the use of numbers.  When our rational mind has cold, hard statistics to support its arguments, it’s much more likely to overcome the emotion-based arguments of the primitive brains.  Providing your neocortex with this ammunition is the purpose of this site.  Using numbers we can overthrow this idiocracy and ignite a revolution of reason.  Suffering can be eliminated and utopia can be realized.

Mike Sinn

Radical Utilitarian at QuAnTiMoDo
Before I die, I will abolish all unnecessary suffering on earth by replacing our corrupt governmental institutions with a system of crowd-sourced direct democracy described at CrowdSourcingUtopia.com. This rational resource allocation system will redirect money currently spend on various types of warfare to positive endeavors such as commercial in vitro meat and life-extension technologies. However, in order to take control of the levers of world power from the psychopaths and idiots which currently wield them will require that we first eradicate mental illness by crowdsourcing positive psychology research QuAnTiMoDo.com. In order to abolish suffering, we much first abolish politics. In order to abolish politics, we must first abolish mental illness.
  • https://twitter.com/#!/GeorgeTatts George

    “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” -Mark Twain. This website’s premise is fundamentally flawed and if any of its numbers happen to “lie” then it only serves to polarize our nation further by giving a sense of false confidence to the many arm-chair ignoramus activists.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org Mike P. Sinn

      How can a number lie? Is it better to base opinions on complex political issues on emotion?

  • Brian

    Under the “Tribal Loyalty” section, you spelled our president’s name as “Barak Obama”, while it should be “Barack”. Just thought you’d want to know, you know avoiding undue influences and all that. Otherwise, a very interesting premise – I’m curious to see how objective the rest of the site appears, and how you balance the ease-of-understanding with the threat of oversimplification.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org Mike P. Sinn

      Thanks!

  • https://twitter.com/#!/GeorgeTatts George

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics Statistics in politics are engineered to support a claim or opinion. I’d also wager that the numbers you cite on this website agree with your political positions that you hold. Its not hard to find statistical evidence to back up nearly any position.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org Mike P. Sinn

      You’re right. That Wikipedia has a list of statistical fallacies. Please let me know if you identify any of them in any of the posts.

      Also, if you can come up with well-sourced, fallacy-free statistical data that is contrary to my findings in a given I would be happy to add it in an amendment to the post.

  • kent frazier

    1=0

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Why I oughta!

  • http://www.visiosight.com Naj

    I agree that analytical thinking is what humanity needs. With that said, it is clear the general populace doesn’t utilize such forms of thinking as it is considered arduous. They find much ease in utilizing their subconscious to conform to abstract propaganda and associative base levels of thinking instead of statistical base levels. Research shows every time that even the most adept statisticians fall into mistakes of base level perception, representation, associative activation, regression to the mean and the infamous “WYSIATI.” Such concepts alluded to by the great Daniel Kahneman.

    Great post though, kudos to you. Statistical thinking is the way to go.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org Mike P. Sinn

      Very true. I’d never heard of Daniel Kahneman. I’ll have to look into his writings.

      Thanks!

  • Bill

    I love the site and the facts, simple and direct. Numbers dont lie, and discovery and exploration is based on numerical facts and prediction. Emotions will kill you if thats all you rely upon to fly your spacecraft, airplane, or sail your ship. Smart people would rather think less with emotion and more with numerical relationships. Less smart people dont have the time or patience to give a damn. Nice site! thanks for it!

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org Mike P. Sinn

      We love you!

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  • http://twitter.com/boriskist boriskist (@boriskist)

    statistics don’t kill people, people kill people….aka, you have to look behind any statistic to see what it’s actually measuring. you would think as nosey as americans are they would want to be looking at what goes on in every statistics bedroom……

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Good point!

  • Aniqa

    THANK YOU! For this shining beacon of logos, amidst all the muck of ignorant (at best) and ill-intentioned (at worst) pathos. We are far too materialistic to understand ethos though

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org Mike P. Sinn

      THANK YOU for being such a doll! I’m filled with self-loathing so your kind greek words really mean a lot to me. Really. Thanks. :)

  • Shauntay Larkins

    good stuff maynard. and not a difficult read either for the non-statistically minded.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org Mike P. Sinn

      Thanks, Shauntay! However, I’m still not able to get through to the illiterate demographic.

  • Poe Lou Chan

    Very much enjoyed finding and going over your site … will be checking in (and linking to) often.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Thanks, Poe! :)

  • TomDenison

    I just discovered this site moments ago and this is the best site I have come across in eons. I absolutely love this site. I live, eat and breathe logical analysis of current events and this site is spot on. Love it!

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      You’re too kind, Tom!

  • http://www.facebook.com/StatenIsland Anthony Licciardello

    Absolutely, and astonishingly brilliant…

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Thank you! I’m going to show your comment to my friends. I’m always telling them I’m brilliant, but no one believes me!

  • orchidpets

    where is the ‘about us’ tab? just stumbled on here today and am trying to find out more about who started this site, when, and who is invloved with the writings/opinions

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Hi, Lisa!

      I do! Be my friend! http://www.facebook.com/mike.p.sinn

      Thanks for reading my crazy ranting! I usually do my ranting at the bus stop next to the homeless people, but I made this site to make it more convenient for my audience.
      :)

  • http://twitter.com/bootstrapt Nick Turner

    Barely scratched the surface, but loving this site so far.

    I have read some pseudo-psychology that suggests that rationality is a tool we use to back up our opinions, rather than a path to our opinions as we like to believe. My experience has jibed well that, but that still doesn’t make it true. I love the interdisciplinary approach of bringing in the structure of the brain. It’s almost beautiful when different branches of science come to the same conclusion through different starting points and methods.

    And I do believe you are using statistics to back up a stance, much the same way Nate Silver has in our past two elections. I believe that stance is trying to find the unbiased signal amidst all the (often well dressed-up) noise. Cheers to you, sir.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Thanks, Nick! You complete me!

  • Nikoracz

    Fantastic, this site needs to be spread. I will say, Mike, that your sarcasm is so subtle that I almost can’t tell if you’re mocking commenters or legitimately thankful. Regardless, I truly enjoy the perspective/eloquence/general knowledge you bring into this mud-stained political arena of ours.

    Just a question, but what does the statistics say about a potential AnCap voluntarist society? Is there even any data to support the notion of the illegitimacy of the monopolistic federal goverment? Thanks for your time.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Thank you! I’m not sure what comments you’re referring to, but I am thankful for any comment that isn’t an ad hominem attack.

      This post suggests that smaller government leads to greater economic growth: http://thinkbynumbers.org/economics/gdp/ideal-level-of-government-spending/

      I tend to think that we do need some collective body (i.e. government) with the authority to use force to protect private property and keep people from hurting each other. It seems like the violent minorities tend to oppress other’s freedoms if the peaceful majority of society does not establish a body to disincentive this behavior. i.e. Somalia

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  • Stacy Culpepper

    You reference some links that are way too old to be considered reliable. (‘what the average voter doesn’t know’)

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Why is a newer link more likely to be reliable than an older link?

  • scripsi

    I think, therefore I am your existent reader and I am reading your stuff.

  • Mathew James

    With logic and reason, we CAN ignite a revolution of reason. Thank you, very much, for this well written and profoundly interesting read.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Thanks for reading, Mathew!

  • http://www.facebook.com/marielouise.xavier Marie-Louise Xavier

    My lizard, dog and vulcan friends say, thank you.

    • http://thinkbynumbers.org/ Mike P. Sinn

      Thank you for reading, @facebook-100000265783184:disqus !

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